- Israel struck 16 Quds Force aircraft at Tehran’s Mehrabad Airport, crippling key logistics.
- The Assembly of Experts is under IRGC pressure to elect Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader.
- Israel launched first-time strikes on Tehran oil depots, while IRGC forces retaliated against refineries in Haifa.
The Leadership Vacuum
The Islamic Republic’s survival mechanism has turned into a strategic liability. The Assembly of Experts is currently working to appoint a successor to Ali Khamenei, with the IRGC actively pressuring the body to select his son, Mojtaba Khamenei.
This process is usually a matter of state stability. It is now a target acquisition list. Israel has vowed to maintain near-complete control of Iranian airspace, promising to strike with full force. The paradox is simple. Iran requires a functioning head of state to manage the war, but the act of appointing one provides Israel with a high-value target in an environment where air defenses are largely failing to provide cover.
Economic Infrastructure at Risk
The conflict shifted on March 7 when Israel expanded its target set to include Iran’s economic survival. Strikes hit oil storage depots across Tehran, marking the first time the country’s energy lifeline has been directly targeted.
The IRGC attempted to signal parity by launching retaliatory strikes against the Haifa oil refinery. The regional fallout is accelerating. Bahrain reported fires near the Mina Salman neighborhood following Iranian drone activity, while Saudi Arabia issued a formal warning that further strikes on its energy infrastructure will be met with direct retaliation.
The math of the campaign is visible in the sky. Israel has dropped 1,465 munitions over the weekend alone. Meanwhile, Iran’s capability to project power is shrinking. The destruction of 16 Quds Force aircraft at Mehrabad Airport removes a vital link for moving funds and weapons to proxies.
The Regional Fronts
The campaign is no longer confined to the Iranian border. Israeli forces struck central Beirut for the first time since the conflict escalated, killing three key Quds Force commanders in a hotel strike. Iranian-backed forces are feeling the pressure, with reports confirming that IRGC members are beginning to leave Lebanon.
The instability extends to Iraq and Jordan, where Katyusha rockets hit near the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad and the total number of attacks on Jordanian territory reached 119. As China prepares to provide financial and material aid, the window for a quiet succession closes. Every day the regime waits to name a leader, the list of potential targets grows longer.
The Assembly of Experts must choose a successor. Israel is waiting to see who they pick.
